There are two tropical disturbances brewing in the Atlantic Ocean right now. It’s likely neither will hit Florida. One, called Invest 99L, very likely could become a depression, but current models predict it will loop back out toward the center of the ocean without hitting us. The other, a tropical wave floating over the Bahamas, has only a 20 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, this will be life for Miamians until hurricane season ends in November. Today, NOAA upgraded its predictions for this year and warned that we’ll be in for even more hurricanes than previously warned.

“The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010,” NOAA wrote today. NOAA now warns there will likely be 14 to 19 named storms this year, five to nine hurricanes, and two to five “major” ones. There’s now a 60 percent chance this all occurs:







In May, NOAA warned there would likely be 11 to 17 named storms, and only a 45 percent chance things would be worse than usual. But thanks to current weather conditions and an exceedingly warm ocean, we’re apparently in for a doozy of a few months. And that’s after the whole city flooded once this year already thanks to the remnants of a tropical storm.

“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

NOAA today warned people in hurricane-prone areas to make sure they have plans in place to deal with storm surges, power outages, and possible evacuations — and it seems Miamians ought to start paying attention to weather models until fall hits.

Case in point: Even now, there’s an outside shot Miami gets grazed by one or two current tropical disturbances. Weather models from earlier this week predicted, with pretty low confidence, that if 99L turned into a larger storm, it could potentially raze the Florida coastline — but as of today, those models have moved the storm eastward into the sea.

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